Is Gabrielle on the way?
By IRENE NOLAN
This photo of the ponds on the road to the Cape Hatteras Lighthouse was taken the week of Sept. 3, and it illustrates just how dry the area is after a summer of rainfall that has been much below normal. You can see deer and geese trying to find a drink of water. To date, precipitation measured by the National Weather Service at Billy Mitchell Airport in Frisco is 18.36 inches below normal for the year.  The normal is 38.09, and we’ve had only 19.73 inches of rain.  Last year this time, we had 30.85 inches.  The driest periods have been in the last few months. Photo by Lynne Foster


Whether we will have to cope with Tropical Storm Gabrielle this weekend has been the question all day today.

We went to bed last night with forecasters saying basically that the low pressure system off the coast of the Carolinas was going nowhere and showed no signs of development, even though climate models all week had predicted a possible tropical system for the Carolinas all week.

However, they all noted we should stay tuned.

As is so often the case with these weather systems, we woke up to a surprise this morning.  The system was strengthening and moving back to the west – toward the coast.

National Weather Service and Weather Channel forecasters have been saying all day that the system could well become a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today. A “hurricane hunter” aircraft has been flying through the storm this afternoon, but by 6 p.m. had not found a center of circulation or winds high enough for the National Hurricane Center to say that there is a new tropical depression.

However, all the forecasters, as well as Dare and Hyde county emergency managers, advise islanders and visitors to stay informed and watch the forecast.

At the very least, the system might bring much needed rain to the area.  It also will bring a high risk of rip currents all along the North Carolina coast.

However, the system is close the coast and could intensify and move toward Hatteras and Ocracoke without much notice – much as Hurricane Alex did in 2004.

Here’s what our weather sources had to say this afternoon:  
 
The area of low pressure well east of the northern Florida coast that operational global and dynamical models have been excited about for days continues to be under an unfavorable environment for development and, there has been a distinct trend over the past two days by all guidance to downplay this system. However, increasing convection is steadily seen this afternoon and quick scat satellite imagery is showing some 35- to 40-knot winds as the current hostile environment weakens.
As it moves westward and potentially acquires more tropical development, we would not be surprised to see it called a tropical depression later today or by tomorrow and a tropical storm before reaching the coast. (Check National Hurricane Center advisories and discussions.)
 
Current guidance continues to be split with several models moving the system southward and bringing it in more towards the central South Carolina coast with other guidance taking it farther north, closer to Cape Lookout. Wherever it comes in, it should be turning to the northeast Sunday.

By early Monday, the system is expected to be near or offshore of Nags Head.
Expect rain and increasing winds to affect the coastal areas late Saturday night and Sunday.
 
Latest guidance does not show much intensification, but this could be off, and surprises sometime happen. Pay attention to this system. If it tracks through Pamlico Sound or offshore, there could be enough northwest winds for some soundside flooding late Sunday or early Monday.

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