Tropical
storm threat this weekend
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By IRENE
NOLAN
Hatteras
and Ocracoke islanders and visitors may be looking at a tropical system
coming onshore in the area this weekend – perhaps Saturday.
The Weather Channel is reporting that all climate models are
indicating that a non-tropical low pressure off the southeast coast
will become tropical in the next few days. Right now, the low is
heading east, away from the coast, but models are indicating that it
will head back toward the southeast coast later this week.
Here is what our weather sources are saying:
There is a continued and
increasing model consensus with the area of disturbed weather east of
Jacksonville, Fla. All global models for two days now have forecast
stalling or a slow initial drift eastward, then building a mid-level
high north of the developing low pressure and bringing it back to the
northwest, which would affect the southeast coast from as far west as
Savannah, Ga., to as far north as New England.
The Canadian and ECMWF
models continue to have strong solutions as does the new HWRF, and most
of the dynamic model guidance that forecast intensity bring this system
to at least tropical storm strength of 35 knots or more with some
reaching hurricane strength. Phase diagrams of the models nearly all
indicate a conversion to tropical development.
Current guidance
consensus targets the North Carolina coast from Cape Fear to east of
Cape Hatteras. Right now we are looking t low pressure crossing the
coast between Wilmington and Jacksonville, but it could easily be east
of that, closer to Cape Lookout and as far east as just off of
Hatteras. This should be Saturday to Sunday. The storm should then
track northeastward from as far west and north as mid-Chesapeake Bay to
east of Norfolk. This would be later Sunday.
Since this is only three and maybe four days out, there is limited time to prepare.
This system will probably be either a hybrid low or tropical storm with possible hurricane strength potential.
The Tropical Prediction
Center/National Hurricane Center will be looking closely at this
system. Monitor future discussions/advisories or warnings issued over
the next several days. Look closely at the three- to five- day cone of
track potential. This is more important than the actual track,
especially at longer time ranges.
Wednesday afternoon update
Current analysis of a
sheared environment over the low east of Jacksonville, Fla., and a
repositioning of its position along with a varying forecast track by
models leads to an adjusted forecast. This is mainly in timing and
somewhat along the track on the northern end. It’s basically a
slower forecast by about one day. On the other hand, this gives this
system extra time to possibly get stronger.
For Saturday morning, the low forecast to be near 31N 78W, east of Savannah Ga.
Sunday morning, it is forecast to be approaching Cape Fear near 33N 78W.
By Monday morning
forecast to be over eastern North Carolina near Kinston 35N 77W, then
speeding up and exiting through Currituck to off Ocean City, Md., by
Tuesday morning, 37N 74W.
It could still be either
west or east of that track. There remain a number of model solutions,
still taking the storm into South Carolina as far south as
Beaufort/Hilton Head. That is new 12z Canadian and UKMET runs. So there
is still a good deal of uncertainty.
There is no change either way in intensity. It will most likely be of tropical storm strength or greater.
Of
course, no one wants to see a hurricane come our way. We
don’t need high winds and tides that overwash Highway 12 and send
the Pamlico Sound into our yards and businesses.
However, a nice, mild tropical storm with a lot of rain would be
welcome on Hatteras and Ocracoke at this point. The islands are
extremely dry.
To date, precipitation measured at the National Weather Service
Automated Surface Observation System at Billy Mitchell Airport in
Frisco is 18.36 inches below normal for the year. The normal is
38.09, and we’ve had only 19.73 inches of rain. Last year
this time, we had 30.85 inches. The driest periods have been in
the last few months.
You can stay tuned to your local television stations, the Weather
Channel, and The Island Free Press for updates on the weekend forecast.
If the low pressure system becomes a tropical storm, it will be named Gabrielle.
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